> I use basic recent historical context as proof that evidently Chinese produced uncontrolled spacecrafts have fallen near people.
Something happening before doesn't change the fact that the chances of it happening are miniscule. The chances of it happening this time are completely divorced variables from what happened in a prior rocket.
>What do you know from this rocket stage that differs from the last one
There are many variables that go into the motion of objects in the atmosphere. Those numbers will not be the same as last time, or else you'd be able to predict where it falls this time based on where it falls last time. I suggest you actually learn about what determines where something will be: https://www.coursera.org/specializations/spacecraft-dynamics-control